benjamin-gray.com

The Right Man Won

June 22, 2009

in Politics

I ended up backing John Bercow for the speakership.

Sir George Young was tempting, but too much of a backroom boy to front the changes Parliament urgently needs to make.

Bercow has strong reforming credentials, an independent mind, cross-party appeal, charisma and humour.

I don’t quite get the outrage of some of my friends on the right-wing blogs though. You complain about spineless MPs who don’t differ from their party line, and look for a Speaker who is loyal to the House rather than the government of the day, and get angry when that candidate happens to be of your “side”. If you support MPs having their own opinions, you have to support it in your own party as well.

Very well done to Mr. Bercow and let’s hope he fulfills his promises.

An Interesting Split

June 22, 2009

in World

Via the Guardian:

1.35pm:
General Ali Fazli, recently appointed as commander of Seiyed al-shohada of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran province, has been arrested for refusing to carry Khamenei’s order to use force against demonstrators, according to an unconfirmed report on the Balatarin, spotted by Robert Tait.

Earlier reports suggested that Fazli, who lost an eye during Iran’s war with Iraq, had been sacked for his non-compliance. He is said to have been taken to an unknown location after his “arrest”. Could this be a first sign of a split among the upper echelons in the security forces?

Khamenei severely overstretched with his explicit endorsement of Ahmadinejad last week. The sources of friction may well widen further.

Supporting the Protesters

June 18, 2009

in Blogging, World

Blogging will be light this week as I’m on tour with only a Blackberry for internet access. The protests in Tehran continue, however. If you want to do your bit to support them, you can choose from among the following.

1. Colour your blog green.

Like my background. A statement of moral support.

2. Reset your Twitter location.

The Iranian authorities are monitoring Twitter to track the protesters. To increase the noise they have to filter, alter your account’s location to Tehran, and set your time zone to GMT/UTC+3:30.

3. Report as much as possible

Similarly, the régime is conducting a netwar, seeking to limit and control the flow of information within and outside Iran. You can help to counteract this by retweeting from legitimate Tehran tweeters (see The Right Student for a list), and blogging as much as possible about what’s going on. The more reporting you can do, the better.

Following the Iranian News

June 16, 2009

in World

Marc Ambinder has put together something of a guide to following the massive noise of internet data and misinformation coming out from Iran:

Don’t assume. Everyone assumes that Mousavi really won. But there is reason to think that the election was very close — and that Ahmadinejad might have actually prevailed (although the evidence appears solid that his totals were significantly inflated.) Don’t assume that Ayatollahs who appear at protests necessarily support the protesters. Don’t assume that the Khamenei speaks for the rest of the council of guardians. Don’t assume that Iran’s government had a plan to contain the protests — or has a plan for tomorrow, ten days from now, or next month.

Although he rightly talks of this data providing useful intelligence sources, he forgets to consider that it can all be crowded under the label of OSINT (Open Source Intelligence). The proliferation of this type of intelligence over the last few years is having profound implications as to how we go about gathering and analyising information. CNNFail has already demonstrated its ability to outpace an organisation once famed for getting the news before others.

Parallel Prejudices

June 16, 2009

in World

On the same subject of not jumping to conclusions, we should be careful not to draw historic parallels too quickly either. We don’t know if it is a “colour revolution”, a repeat of 1979, Kenya or something else. Neither do Iranians. Drawing parallels too quickly does nothing to help analyse what’s going on. It is also of limited use anyway; this unrest has its own dynamics and will unfold in its own unique manner. We shouldn’t fall into the trap of trying to twist facts to fit theories.

More Complex than it Seems

June 16, 2009

in World

It’s always popular to portray events such as those going on in Iran as a clash of wills between two diametrically opposed forces. This is convenient, but not an entirely useful way of thinking about things. The reality of the situation in Tehran and elsewhere is more complex. The following photo ought to demonstrate this:
Mousavi Supporter and Riot Police

A backer of Mir Hossein Mousavi helps evacuate an injured riot-police officer during riots in Tehran on June 13, 2009. (OLIVIER LABAN-MATTEI/AFP/Getty Images)

A Mousavi supporter is evacuating an injured riot policeman from the fray.

I’m not putting this up to make a particular political point, just to remind people that demonisation and beatification of the protagonists is unrealistic. This kind of clash is far more complex, and should not be so easily subjected to our own prejudices.

Where Twitter is Useful

June 16, 2009

in Blogging

Twitter wasn’t merely used to pressure the major networks to get on the story – it was also being used to deliver on-the-ground reports from both professional journalists and Iranian protesters themselves. Native Iranian Tweeters such as persiankiwi, StopAhmadi, IranElection09 and Change_for_Iran were providing real-time updates of protests in their areas, as well as linking to pictures and videos of riot police beating demonstrators with batons and breaking up peaceful protests.

Iranian Electoral Fraud

June 15, 2009

in World

Assuming this is genuine (and that’s a big assumption), the following Twitter feed is supposedly of an Iranian election official admitting to widespread fraud.

Alastair Campbell on Iran’s post-electoral unrest:

It is a reminder both of how important good journalism is, but also of how much some in the prevailing media culture here take for granted as they routinely refer to Britain as a police state, a surveillance society devoid of real freedoms.

It is reminiscent of what I banged on about earlier this year. The cases of concern here do not compare to what is going on in Iran right now. Yes, there are ways in which liberty has been eroded in Britain, and there are also cases of excesses committed by our own police forces. But it does nobody any real favours to start screaming that we have somehow turned into a police state when there are regimes out there that remain deserving of such a title.

The Problem with Constitutional Reform

June 13, 2009

in Politics

As a remedy to the expenses scandal it is suggested that we institute wholesale reform of the British constitution. Party leaders play leapfrog to appear the most sincere in their efforts to amend the system.

It is, as Tom Harris noted, a red herring.

Since 1997 we have witnessed major reforms to our constitution: devolution, the Human Rights Act, the Supreme Court and Freedom of Information spring to mind. Parliament underwent a modernisation programme under Robin Cook. These reforms have been wide-ranging and significant. Their implications not fully envisaged or considered, we are still working through the details of how to reconcile them with the established constitution. Yet it is during this period of significant constitutional reform that much of the expenses abuse occurred. In what world does more of the same equate to change?

Blaming the abuse of Parliamentary allowances on “the system” is a cop-out to avoid personal responsibility. The truth is far more simple: MPs were unable to distinguish between what was “within the rules” and what was morally justifiable. The failure was moral, not systemic. Trying to open up the system or close the loopholes treats the symptoms rather than the causes, and is anyway impractical. MPs will always be required to act with discretion and Parliament will always need a degree of privacy. In such an enviroment abuses are always going to be possible.

The solution then lies not in reforming the system towards unattainable perfection, but in the more challenging task of finding a better class of MP. In that, party leaders should look to get their own house in order before they meddle with the House and its centuries of tradition.